Roscosmos & NASA's Extended Space Collaboration
The Russian federal space agency, Roscosmos, has recently announced an extension of its collaborative cross-flight program with NASA, continuing their partnership until 2025. This program involves the integration of crews from both nations on space missions to the International Space Station (ISS). The primary objective of this extension is to maintain the reliability and effective functioning of the ISS.
Under this program, astronauts from the United States will be part of the crew on Russian spacecraft, and similarly, Russian cosmonauts will be included in the crew of American spacecraft. This approach of cross-flights has been a key component in ensuring the operational stability and international cooperation at the ISS. This decision reflects a continued commitment to international collaboration in space exploration, despite geopolitical tensions on Earth. The ISS, a symbol of international partnership in space, relies on the joint efforts of multiple countries for its operations and research endeavors. The extension of this program underscores the importance of sustained cooperation in space, where scientific and exploratory goals often transcend national boundaries. Source : Reuters
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OPEC's 2024 Challenges: Market Share and Demand Decline
In the first half of 2024, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is anticipated to face a decline in demand for its crude oil, alongside a reduction in its global market share to the lowest levels since the Covid-19 pandemic. This situation arises from a combination of factors including production cuts and Angola's decision to leave OPEC in January 2024. The exit of Angola, following the departures of Ecuador in 2020, Qatar in 2019, and Indonesia in 2016, will leave OPEC with 12 members. Consequently, the organization's production will drop below 27 million barrels per day, constituting less than 27% of the total global supply of 102 million barrels per day.
The last time OPEC's market share was as low as 27% was during the 2020 pandemic when global demand plummeted by 15-20%. Since then, although global demand has reached record levels, OPEC has lost market share to competitors. Historically, OPEC produced about half of the global crude in the 1970s, but with the emergence of non-OPEC supply sources like the North Sea, its share has been diminishing. In recent decades, OPEC's share has fluctuated between 30% and 40%, but has faced competition from record output growth in countries like the United States. As of November 2023, OPEC's crude oil output accounted for 27.4% of the total market, down from 32-33% in 2017-2018. OPEC, established in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq, has expanded over the years, with Angola joining in 2007. Since 2017, OPEC has collaborated with Russia and other non-members in the OPEC+ group to manage the market. OPEC+ is currently reducing production by around 6 million barrels per day, indicating the potential to increase output to regain market share, though this could lead to a significant drop in oil prices if demand does not improve. Projections from prominent oil forecasters like the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and OPEC itself suggest limited scope for reducing these production cuts in the near future. However, OPEC anticipates an increase in its market share in the long term, with a prediction of its total share of the oil market rising to 40% by 2045 as non-OPEC output begins to decline from the early 2030s. Source : Reuters (Reporting by Alex Lawler) China's Steel Industry Resurgence in 2023
In 2023, China's steel production is projected to experience an upswing, marking the first such increase in three years. This rise comes amidst challenges in the domestic property sector, traditionally a major consumer of steel. The property sector, which accounts for about 35% of China's steel demand, has been struggling with liquidity issues and a notable decline in sales, specifically a 7.8% drop in sales by floor area compared to the previous year.
Despite the downturn in the property sector, other industries are contributing to the increased demand for steel. The surge in steel output is attributed to robust vehicle manufacturing and a significant uptick in exports. The automobile production in China reached a record high, with November's production alone showing a substantial increase from the previous year. This robust demand from the automotive sector, along with resilient exports, is compensating for the softness in the property sector. The Chinese government appears to be adopting a less stringent approach towards steel output cuts, likely due to concerns over economic growth. This stance is expected to result in only mild declines in crude steel production in the coming months, potentially stabilizing or even increasing steel prices and benefiting China's steel exports. Overall, the anticipated increase in steel output in 2023 reflects a shift in the drivers of steel demand within China. While the property sector remains uncertain, other sectors such as vehicle manufacturing and exports are showing solid growth, contributing to the overall resilience of the steel industry in China. Source : Reuters (Reporting by Clyde Russell) China's Steel Production Surge in 2023
In 2023, China's steel production is poised for an increase, the first in three years. This growth comes despite challenges in the domestic property sector, which traditionally accounts for about 35% of the nation's steel demand. The property sector has been hampered by financial issues and declining sales. However, other sectors like vehicle manufacturing and exports are compensating for this slowdown. China, responsible for approximately 55% of global steel production, saw a production increase of 1.4% in the first ten months of 2023 compared to 2022. If this trend continues, the annual output is expected to surpass 1.026 billion metric tons, slightly higher than 2022's 1.01 billion.
The boost in steel output is also supported by rising industrial output and infrastructure investment, with significant growth in machinery, infrastructure, and vehicle sectors, which together account for nearly half of China's steel demand. The export of steel products has seen a substantial increase, rising 35.6% in the first 11 months of 2023 compared to the previous year. This growth in steel production is partly a strategy to bolster economic growth, especially as China recovers from the impacts of its strict zero-COVID-19 policy. Steel prices have shown recovery recently, with rebar futures in Shanghai picking up in value. Additionally, lower rebar inventories suggest that steel mills might increase output early in the new year, especially if the property sector shows signs of recovery. Source : Reuters (Reporting by Amy Lv and Dominique Patton) |
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